President's Budget Would Cut Food Assistance for Millions and Radically Restructure SNAP
End Notes
[1] The budget contains a gross SNAP cut of more than $216 billion over ten years. It allocates an additional $2.5 billion over ten years for new state administrative costs associated with distributing the proposed food boxes, which leaves a net cut of more than $213 billion. The estimates of the size of the cuts throughout this paper are based on the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget of the U.S. Government at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/ and the “Explanatory Notes” the Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides to the Congress, available at https://www.obpa.usda.gov/32fns2019notes.pdf. Many of the provisions in this year’s budget were also proposed last year. The Congressional Budget Office’s estimates of the President’s 2018 budget proposals for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program can be found at https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52903.
[2] The estimates in this section of the dollars withdrawn from SNAP benefits and share of SNAP benefits are based on USDA’s $130 billion estimate of the savings and on the assumption that the USDA could purchase food boxes “at approximately half the retail cost.” (The budget asserts these assumptions here: https://www.obpa.usda.gov/32fns2019notes.pdf, p. 32-81.) USDA issued a one-page description of the proposal late on February 12, 2018 (called “America’s Harvest Box”) that explained that, “The amount of food received per household would be scaled to the overall size of the household’s SNAP allotment, ultimately representing about half of their benefits.” (Emphasis added.) "USDA America's Harvest Box," https://www.agri-pulse.com/ext/resources/pdfs/Americas-Harvest-Box.pdf. For the share of households’ benefits that the boxes would represent to be closer to half, the purchase price USDA would pay would need to be higher than 50 percent of the market price, and the amount that would need to be withdrawn from benefits could be more like $30 billion to $35 billion a year, or almost 50 percent of the current monthly SNAP benefit this group receives.
[3] For a discussion and listing of SNAP retailers by state, see Elizabeth Wolkomir, “SNAP Boosts Retailers and Local Economies,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, August 29, 2017, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-boosts-retailers-and-local-economies.
[4] See page 32-81 at https://www.obpa.usda.gov/32fns2019notes.pdf.
[5] According to the USDA's fact sheet, "The amount of food received per household would be scaled to the overall size of the household's SNAP allotment." "USDA America's Harvest Box," https://www.agri-pulse.com/ext/resources/pdfs/Americas-Harvest-Box.pdf. The share of an individual household's benefits replaced by commodity foods would vary based on the formula USDA used to scale the amount of food provided to households.
[6] Adam Drewnowski and Petra Eichelsdoerfer, “Can Low-Income Americans Afford a Healthy Diet?” Nutrition Today, Nov. 2010, 44(6): 246-249, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2847733/.
[7] These include many locally owned businesses, such as private groceries, convenience stores, dairies, butchers, bakeries, and farm stands. For these small businesses, SNAP is an important revenue source — particularly in high-poverty areas, where SNAP purchases can account for a significant share of a retailer’s total sales.
[8] Steven Carlson, Dorothy Rosenbaum, and Brynne Keith-Jennings, “Who Are the Low-Income Childless Adults Facing the Loss of SNAP in 2016?” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, February 8, 2016, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/who-are-the-low-income-childless-adults-facing-the-loss-of-snap-in-2016.
[9] Ed Bolen and Stacy Dean, “Waivers Add Key State Flexibility to SNAP’s Three-Month Time Limit,” CBPP, updated February 6, 2018, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/waivers-add-key-state-flexibility-to-snaps-three-month-time-limit.
[10] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, “States Have Requested Waivers from SNAP’s Time Limit in High Unemployment Areas for the Past Two Decades,” https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/states-have-requested-waivers-from-snaps-time-limit-in-high-unemployment.
[11] Based on the Administration’s estimates of the federal savings from this provision, about 100,000 individuals would lose SNAP in an average month under the policy that eliminates the “15 percent” exemptions.
[12] More than 2 million individuals participating in SNAP in a typical month are age 50 to 62, living in households with no minor children, not receiving disability benefits, and not working more than 20 hours a week. Not all of these individuals would lose SNAP. States would determine some to be exempt for other reasons. Based on the Administration’s estimate of the federal savings from this provision, roughly 200,000 to 300,000 individuals would lose SNAP in an average month under the policy that expands the time limit to apply to people age 50 through 62. This could be too low since roughly 10 times as many people could be potentially subject to the time limit.
[13] Connie Wanberg et al., “Age and Reemployment Success After Job Loss: An Integrative Model and Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 2016, Vol. 142, No. 4, 400-426.
[14] CBO’s estimate of the federal savings from this provision from last year’s budget is substantially lower: -$10 billion over ten years.
[15] See Elizabeth Wolkomir and Lexin Cai, “The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Includes Earnings Incentives,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, July 25, 2017, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/the-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-includes-earnings-incentives.
[16] Eligible households with one or two members qualify for a minimum benefit of $15 in fiscal year 2018 in the continental U.S. The minimum benefit levels are higher in Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.
[17] In addition to the SNAP cut, the budget would eliminate funding for LIHEAP, which provides roughly $3 billion a year to help many low-income households offset a portion of their utility costs.
[18] The average match rate is slightly less than 50 percent in most states, but on the margin, i.e., for each additional dollar that a state spends on these activities, every state receives a 50 percent federal match currently.
[19] The administrative cost per state in 2016 can be found in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program State Activity Report, Fiscal Year 2016, https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/snap/FY16-State-Activity-Report.pdf. The following states would have their federal reimbursements cut by more than 25 percent: Alaska, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Virginia, Virgin Islands, and Wyoming.
[20] Food and Nutrition Act of 2008, as Amended by P.L.113-79, §2.
[21] The House Disaster Supplemental bill, H.R. 4667, https://www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr4667/BILLS-115hr4667eh.pdf.
[22] CBO’s estimate can be found at https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/cboestimateforrcp115-50housedisastersupplementalandotherdivisi.pdf.
[23] Dottie Rosenbaum, “SNAP Caseloads and Spending Declines Track CBO Projections,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, May 22, 2017, https://www.cbpp.org/blog/snap-caseloads-and-spending-declines-track-cbo-projections.